Monday, March 16, 2020

SAVED BY ZERO....Fed's To "Fixx" Liquidity...Interest Rates Zero Percent! May Not Be What You Think.

I received an email from a mortgage broker saying how slammed they are by applications and that they are busy all day explaining the difference between "Fed Rates" and mortgage rates.  I am not in mortgages or economics and like anyone else, when I hear "Zero Percent" rates,  immediately I make the logical leap to end user rates, i.e. mortgage rates and re-financing possibilities.  A common, but incorrect leap.

Without going into great detail, (you can do that on your own), the "Fed Rate" is not "the mortgage rate". A Fed Funds rate is a rate that banks charge other banks on short term loans, REALLY SHORT as in an overnight term. The Rate is decided 8 times per year. A mortgage lender rate can change daily and this is what lenders are busy explaining right now. Some speculated that posted lender rates ticked upward last week to actually slow down the barrage of applications. Back to fed rates, banks have to maintain certain levels of reserve based on their deposit levels and so this short term cash swapping goes on between banks and is regulated by the Federal Reserve.  So, no, you will not get a zero percent loan at this time. However, rates are still historically low. I imagine no one is interested in stifling economic movement with high rates with all that is going on.  From what I have read, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and job indices are more directly related to how interest rates move.  The CPI basically is the percentage of change in costs for consumer goods and services over a time period.  It will be interesting to see what the job indices are in the near future.  Again, I am not in mortgages, so do not get your education from here, do your due diligence and speak to your mortgage professional, accountant, or banker before deciding on your re-finance or type of mortgage.

I read a few days ago that the search term "should I buy a house" had it's highest frequency ever, actually doubling during March.  Even in the midst of this chaotic time and unprecedented set of variables we are facing, there are lots of people at least wanting to buy a home. You cannot read too much into the search frequency, but, it seems like demand is still high.


There is a large chunk of soon to be first time home buyers waiting in the wings (Millennials are more or less 20-38 yrs old now), there is a perceived lack of supply, there is continued demand by mid-career and retirees to move out of high-tax/high-regulatory states and into other states such as Arizona, Nevada, Idaho..etc. , and of course rates are extremely attractive still.  If you are in that boat and are considering Arizona, give me a call or email!